รหัสดีโอไอ 10.14456/cast.2021.12
Creator Klot Patanarapeelert
Title Deterministic and Stochastic Models of the Spread of Streptococcal Disease and Its Sequel
Contributor Nichaphat Patanarapeelert and Natsuda Yokchoo
Publisher King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang
Publication Year 2021
Journal Title Current Applied Science and Technology
Journal Vol. 21
Journal No. 1
Page no. 104-114
Keyword group A Streptococcus ,acute rheumatic fever ,deterministic model ,stochastic model ,carriers
URL Website https://www.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/cast
Website title https://www.tci-thaijo.org/index.php
ISSN 2586-9396
Abstract The beta-hemolytic group A Streptococcus(GAS) is responsible for its sequel, acute rheumatic fever (ARF), whichmay lead to the more serious condition on other heart diseases. To gain a better understandingof the transmission in a population, we formulatedepidemic models using a standard compartmental model and acontinuous-time Markov chain. The modelsallow forthe contribution of disease carrier and the effect of treatment. The equilibrium points andstabilityare analyzed in relation to the basic reproduction number based on the deterministic model. For the stochastic model, numerical simulation of sample paths is performed. The results indicate that the dynamic behavior forthetwo approaches depends on the epidemic threshold. Under stable endemic condition, most sample paths fluctuate around its mean and deterministic curve. On the other hand, when the basic reproduction number is less than one, the stochastic system undergoes a minor outbreak, whilethe deterministic curve approaches zero.The results are expected to be the first step of a deeper analysis ofstochastic treatment linked to itsdeterministic counterpart.
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Klot Patanarapeelert,Nichaphat Patanarapeelert and Natsuda Yokchoo. (2021) Deterministic and Stochastic Models of the Spread of Streptococcal Disease and Its Sequel. Current Applied Science and Technology,21,104-114.
Klot Patanarapeelert,Nichaphat Patanarapeelert and Natsuda Yokchoo. "Deterministic and Stochastic Models of the Spread of Streptococcal Disease and Its Sequel". Current Applied Science and Technology 21 (2021):104-114.
Klot Patanarapeelert,Nichaphat Patanarapeelert and Natsuda Yokchoo. Deterministic and Stochastic Models of the Spread of Streptococcal Disease and Its Sequel. King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang:ม.ป.ท. 2021.