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Decarbonizing Thailand: A Socio-economic Impact Study of Peak Emissions Before 2050 |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | Tanawat Boonpanya |
| Title | Decarbonizing Thailand: A Socio-economic Impact Study of Peak Emissions Before 2050 |
| Contributor | Toshihiko Masui |
| Publisher | Environmental Engineering Association of Thailand |
| Publication Year | 2564 |
| Journal Title | Thai Environmental Engineering Journal (TEEJ) |
| Journal Vol. | 35 |
| Journal No. | 1 |
| Page no. | 23-30 |
| Keyword | CGE model, socio-economic status, climate change, Thailand, peak emissions |
| URL Website | https://so05.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/teej |
| Website title | Thai Environmental Engineering Journal (TEEJ) |
| ISSN | 2673-0359 |
| Abstract | Paris Agreement has confirmed that all countries will hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degree Celsiusabove pre-industrial levelsandto pursue the efforts to limit the temperature increase to well below 1.5 degree Celsius. Because there is a strong link between GHG emissions and economicdevelopment. That is to say,the increase ofconsumption willincrease thestandards of livingtoo. Therefore, it is necessary for the researchers and policy makers to assess the socio-economic status that can maintain the GDP growthwhile reducing GHG emissions to mitigate climate change and safeguard the world.Thailand as a member of UNFCCC has pledged the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) stated that by 2030 GHG emissions in thecountry will be reduced by 20%compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) level. From the current stage,even if Thailand achieve itspledge in the Paris Agreement,the country isstill far from the 2 degree Celsiustarget.Therefore, more ambitious measures are required and Thailand should pursue the peak GHG emissions at the earliestasafirst stepto make the country backing on track to achieve2 degreetarget.By recognizing the important role of market-based mechanisms,this study uses computable general equilibrium model to assess the socio-economic impact of limitingGHGemissions in the target year 2020, 2030, and 2040 respectivelycompared to BaU. The result informed that achieving 2 degree Celsiustarget will cause Thailand cumulative GDP lossduring 2010-2050by 2.7%in Peak2020, 1.9%in Peak2030 and 0.9%in Peak 2050respectivelyin 2050 compared to BaU. Peak emissions early will have more negative impact to Thai economy; however, carbon priceas an economic external cost is increased to the highest level (9,072THB / t CO2.eq) in Peak2040scenarioto keep Thailand backing ontrack.This can imply that the later peak emissions areobserved, the higher cost is required to curve the emissions trajectory to meet emissions target in 2050. |
