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Forecasting monthly world tuna prices with a plausible approach |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | 1. Boonmee Lee 2. Phattrawan Tongkumchum 3. Don McNeil |
| Title | Forecasting monthly world tuna prices with a plausible approach |
| Publisher | Research and Development Office, Prince of Songkla University |
| Publication Year | 2563 |
| Journal Title | Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology |
| Journal Vol. | 42 |
| Journal No. | 2 |
| Page no. | 398-405 |
| Keyword | skipjack tuna prices, seasonal adjustment, cyclical pattern, spline interpolation, time series forecasting |
| URL Website | https://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/index.php |
| ISSN | 0125-3395 |
| Abstract | Skipjack, the most caught species of tuna globally, is a critical raw material for tuna industry in Thailand, the world'slargest tuna-processing hub. However, tuna processors are finding it difficult to manage costs of these imported materials becauseof price fluctuations over time. Whereas most time series forecasting methods used in the literature model only threecomponents: trend, seasonality and error, this study proposes a method to handle a fourth component as well: cycle. This methodsmooths monthly price data using a cubic spline that can detect cycles varying in both frequency and amplitude, and thusgenerates plausible forecasts by refitting the model after duplicating data from its most recent cycle. Results show that world tunaprices have a slightly upward trend in cyclical patterns with each cycle lasting approximately six years. Peak-to-peak amplitudessuggest that prices reached their peak at 2,350 US dollars per metric ton in 2017 and have started to fall, but will rebound after2021. |
