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STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul, Nkrintra Singhrattna |
| Title | STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND |
| Contributor | - |
| Publisher | TuEngr Group |
| Publication Year | 2563 |
| Journal Title | International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies |
| Journal Vol. | 11 |
| Journal No. | 11 |
| Page no. | 11A11S: 1-14 |
| Keyword | Stochastic hydrologic model, Climate change, Rainfall forecast model, Atmospheric variables, K-nearest neighbor |
| URL Website | http://TuEngr.com/Vol11_11.html |
| Website title | ITJEMAST V11(11) 2020 @ TuEngr.com |
| ISSN | 2228-9860 |
| Abstract | During the past decades, Thailand has faced flood and drought problems caused by the effects of global climate change which directly affected rainfall-runoff and water allocation for all demands. This research aims to study the relationships between rainfall in the study area and large-scale atmospheric variables at the different levels from surface level to 10-mb level at lead time 4-15 months. The predictors were identified to develop a 3-month rainfall forecast model to support water resources management. The model evaluations using the leave-one-out technique were evaluated by the goodness-of-fit of statistics and probability density function (PDF) of observed rainfall. The results revealed that the observed data could be preserved to the estimated data for the goodness-of-fit technique and the PDF technique, observed and predicted rainfall were classified into five categories (namely: extremely dry, dry, normal, wet and extremely wet respectively), represented the maximum efficiency in pre-monsoon season (May-June-July) and minimum model efficiency in monsoon season (August-September-October) approximately 42.5% and 31.7% respectively. |
