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The Effects of Fuel Price and Exchange Rate on Inflation Rate of Lao PDR |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | Nidsoudaphone VONETHABING |
| Title | The Effects of Fuel Price and Exchange Rate on Inflation Rate of Lao PDR |
| Contributor | Thongphanh CHANTHAVONE, Pheng HER |
| Publisher | Faculty of Management Science Nakhon Pathom Rajabhat University. |
| Publication Year | 2567 |
| Journal Title | Journal of Management Science Nakhon Pathom Rajabhat University |
| Journal Vol. | 11 |
| Journal No. | 1 |
| Page no. | 150-165 |
| Keyword | fuel price, exchange rate, inflation rate |
| URL Website | https://so03.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/JMSNPRU/issue/view/17771 |
| Website title | https://so03.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/JMSNPRU/index |
| ISSN | 2392-5817 |
| Abstract | This study aims to analyze the impact of fuel prices and exchange rates on the inflation rate of Lao PDR. The quarterly time series data from 1st quarter of 2011 to 4th quarter of 2022 were used to imply with VECM model. The empirical analysis revealed that the exchange rate and inflation rate have both a short-run and long-run relationship as well as a bidirectional relationship where the exchange rate has a positive impact on the inflation rate while the inflation rate has a negative impact on the exchange rate. There is no significant relationship between fuel prices and inflation, in either both the short or long term. The speed of adjustment to the long-term equilibrium point of the model is 3.47% and the forecast results of the VECM model that the trend of the three variables is similar, with the inflation rate tending to increase continuously in quarter 1/2023-1/2024, but the increase is less than 6% per quarter. The price of fuel tends to increase slightly, and in some quarters, there may be a decrease, is also less than 6%. Meanwhile, the exchange rate tends to rise continuously and increases by more than 10% per quarter. |
