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Investigation and Forecast of COVID-19 Wave-II: A Case Study of Pakistan |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | Sher Akbar, Shahid Akbar, Ali Raza, and Muhammad Rovidad |
| Title | Investigation and Forecast of COVID-19 Wave-II: A Case Study of Pakistan |
| Contributor | - |
| Publisher | TuEngr Group |
| Publication Year | 2564 |
| Journal Title | International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies |
| Journal Vol. | 12 |
| Journal No. | 5 |
| Page no. | 12A5T: 1-8 |
| Keyword | COVID-19 second wave, Confirmed cases, ARIMA, Covid forecasting, Covid model, Covid-19 infection prediction, Covid-19 forecast, Epidemic trend, Coronavirus projection, Pandemic forecasting. |
| URL Website | http://TuEngr.com/Vol12_5.html |
| Website title | ITJEMAST V12(5) 2021 @ TuEngr.com |
| ISSN | 2228-9860 |
| Abstract | This study has investigated and forecasted the number of confirmed, deaths, active, and recovered cases of COVID-19 for Wave-II using the ARIMA model in Pakistan. An exponential growth forecast for all the series has been observed under the fitted model for 1 October 2020 to 19 December 2020. Based on our empirical results of forecasted models, the numeral COVID-19 confirmed cases will increase by 1.26 times with a 95% confidence interval at the end of January 2021. Similarly, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 will increase by 1.34 times with a 95% confidence interval until January 2021. Moreover, the number of active cases of COVID-19 will increase by 0.11 times with a 95% confidence interval till the end of January 2021. Besides these, Pakistan has an 89.2% rate of recoveries which will increase by 1.38 times until January 2021. Finally, results show an alarming situation for January 2021 in Pakistan. |
