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ESTIMATING BANKRUPTCY PROBABILITY OF CREDIT ORGANIZATIONS |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | Dilyara F. Zakirova |
| Title | ESTIMATING BANKRUPTCY PROBABILITY OF CREDIT ORGANIZATIONS |
| Contributor | Dmitry S. Panteleev, Elvira F. Zakirova |
| Publisher | TUENGR Group |
| Publication Year | 2561 |
| Journal Title | International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies |
| Journal Vol. | 9 |
| Journal No. | 4 |
| Page no. | 307-315 |
| Keyword | Banking system, Bank default, Financial stability, Fianancial Engineering, Bank bankruptcy, Financial stability, Risks forecasting system of bankruptcy |
| URL Website | http://tuengr.com |
| Website title | International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies |
| ISSN | 2228-9860 |
| Abstract | The paper discusses the issue of bankruptcy of credit institutions in the Russian Federation. In addition, this work reveals the causes for the formation of effective systems for preventing defaults, and presents the analysis of the causes for the deterioration of financial stability of credit institutions. Also, this work reviews the main approaches and authoring techniques used in world practice to assess the probability of bankruptcies; as well as a system of factors that affect the financial stability of a credit institution up to its possible default is formed. Moreover, a system for forecasting the risk of bankruptcy in a Russian bank with a forecast horizon of 5 months and a classification accuracy of 88.33% was proposed. The proposed diagnostic system was based on a logistic regression model of binary choice, what makes it possible to distinguish between financially stable and problem banks. The sample included all banks that suffered a default in the period under study. The comparatively high classification ability of the model presented allows it to be used in practice by both credit institutions in formulating a development strategy, developing measures to prevent bankruptcy and improving financial stability, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation when monitoring the Russian banking sector and identifying banks that are at risk. |
