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Multi-Scenario Simulations of Future Forest Cover Changes Influenced by Socio-Economic Development: A Case Study in the Chiang Mai-Lamphun Basin |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | 1. Rachata Arunsurat 2. Prasit Wangpakapattanawong 3. Alice Sharp 4. Watit Khokthong |
| Title | Multi-Scenario Simulations of Future Forest Cover Changes Influenced by Socio-Economic Development: A Case Study in the Chiang Mai-Lamphun Basin |
| Publisher | Thai Society of Higher Education Institutes on Environment |
| Publication Year | 2566 |
| Journal Title | EnvironmentAsia |
| Journal Vol. | 16 |
| Journal No. | 1 |
| Page no. | 1-15 |
| Keyword | Land cover change, Multi-scenario modeling, Socio-economic driver, Markov-CA-MLP, Chiang Mai-Lamphun basin |
| URL Website | http://www.tshe.org/ea/index.html |
| Website title | EnvironmentAsia |
| ISSN | 1906-1714 |
| Abstract | Changes in land cover in the Chiang Mai-Lamphun basin have been influenced by pressuresof rapid socio-economic developments. The Markov-cellular automata and a multi-layerperceptron technique (Markov-CA-MLP) were employed to simulate three scenarios in2021. Then, the future land cover maps in 2030 and 2050 were built based on the transitionprobability metric from 2021. The different scenarios were based on socio-economic schemes,which include the business-as-usual (BaU), the ecological protection scenario (EPS), andthe baseline development scenario (BDS). A result of model validations using 534 groundsurvey points in 2021 showed that the BaU model in 2021 generated the highest overallaccuracy (82.77%) with a Kappa value of 0.7846, quantity disagreement value of 0.0693,and allocation disagreement value of 0.1030. The projected BaU in 2050 revealed a decreasein forest land (6.70%). At the same time, the built-up and agricultural areas gained 5.57%and 0.88%, respectively. In BaU, class transformation between 2021 and 2050, includingforests to agricultural areas (6.04%), agricultural areas to built-up areas (4.62%), and foreststo built-up areas (1.59%). The BDS depicted the lowest accuracy level compared to BaU andEPS. Following this procedure, this study can provide scientific trends for possible land usemanagement in the Chiang Mai-Lamphun basin based on the described socio-economic settings. |
