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Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | 1. Boonmee Lee 2. Mayuening Eso 3. Apiradee Lim 4. Don McNeil |
| Title | Can crude oil prices predict world tuna prices? |
| Publisher | Research and Development Office, Prince of Songkla University |
| Publication Year | 2563 |
| Journal Title | Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology |
| Journal Vol. | 42 |
| Journal No. | 6 |
| Page no. | 1221-1226 |
| Keyword | tuna prices, crude oil prices, ARMA process, regression with autocorrelated errors, time series forecasting |
| URL Website | https://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/index.php |
| ISSN | 0125-3395 |
| Abstract | World tuna prices exhibit substantial fluctuations over time. We studied monthly tuna and preceding crude oil pricesfrom 1986 to 2018, using linear regression models with autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) errors. Results indicatedthat a model including an increasing linear trend, the oil price 21 months earlier, and a simple ARMA(1,1) error process couldpredict the monthly tuna price reasonably well for recent years, but not prior to 1999. This suggests that oil prices began to affecttuna process only after the global financial crisis, but it takes nearly two years before a change in the oil price affects the tunaprice. |
