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Forecasting petroleum consumption using hybrid SVR-DE modelemphasizing on optimal parameter selection technique |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | Thoranin Sujjaviriyasup |
| Title | Forecasting petroleum consumption using hybrid SVR-DE modelemphasizing on optimal parameter selection technique |
| Publisher | Research and Development Office, Prince of Songkla University |
| Publication Year | 2562 |
| Journal Title | Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology |
| Journal Vol. | 41 |
| Journal No. | 6 |
| Page no. | 1294-1300 |
| Keyword | combined model, petroleum consumption, ARIMA, support vector regression, differential evolution |
| URL Website | http://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/index.php |
| ISSN | 0125-3395 |
| Abstract | At present, liquid fuels remain the dominant source of transportation energy consumption all over the world. Accordingly, the future demand prediction of petroleum consumption is a very challenging task with regard to efficient supplymanagement. In this paper, a hybrid SVR-DE model is developed and proposed to address the problem. The developed modeltakes ability of SVR model to formulate complex predictive function while DE algorithm is used to search the optimal parameters of SVR model. Moreover, the hybrid model is compared withboth ARIMA and SVR models as traditional single models.The experimental results indicated that the developed model outperforms traditional forecasting models based on MAE, MAPE,and sMAPE criteria. Furthermore, the forecast performance of hybrid model is significantly different from both traditional singlemodels at 0.05 significance level. Consequently, the proposed model can be a promising tool for annual petroleum consumption. |
