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The zero-inflated negative binomial-Erlang distribution: An application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Creator | 1. Winai Bodhisuwan 2. Siriporn Samutwachirawong 3. Prasit Payakkapong |
| Title | The zero-inflated negative binomial-Erlang distribution: An application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand |
| Publisher | Research and Development Office, Prince of Songkla University |
| Publication Year | 2561 |
| Journal Title | Songklanakarin Journal of Science and Technology |
| Journal Vol. | 40 |
| Journal No. | 6 |
| Page no. | 1428-1436 |
| Keyword | negative binomial-Erlang distribution, zero-inflated distribution, count data analysis, overdispersion, H5N1 |
| URL Website | http://rdo.psu.ac.th/sjstweb/index.php |
| ISSN | 0125-3395 |
| Abstract | In this study, we propose the zero-inflated negative binomial-Erlang distribution for modeling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at the subdistrict level in Thailand. We provide the probability mass function, mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis for the zero-inflated negative binomial-Erlang distribution. In addition, this distribution provides a better fit compared to the zero-inflated Poisson and the conventional zero-inflated negative binomial distributions. In Thailand, a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype was first confirmed in humans in 2004. The epidemic has only caused sporadic outbreaks in Thailand during the second epidemic wave, particularly in the central and northern regions. The zero-inflated Poisson distribution can be used efficiently in epidemiologic count data with an excess number of zeros. However, when the data exhibit overdispersion, an alternative to the zero-inflated Poisson distribution may be considered such as the zero-inflated negative binomial-Erlang distribution. |
